Tag: investments

What is a stock market correction? And a few other facts.

What is a stock market correction? And a few other facts you need to know

It’s been a crazy few days on Wall Street.

 

On Tuesday, the Dow plunged 567 points at the opening bell and briefly sank into correction territory before roaring back. On Monday, the Dow took its biggest single day point plunge in history.

Here’s what you need to know about what’s going on in the stock market.

What is a stock market correction?

A correction is a 10% decline in stocks from a recent high. In this case, that was less than two weeks ago, when the Dow closed at a record high of 26,616. A correction is less severe than a bear market, when stocks decline 20% from their recent highs. The stock market’s last correction began in the summer of 2015 and ended in February 2016.

Why is this happening?

The most immediate reason is a fear of inflation.

 

Last Friday’s jobs report was strong. Wages are rising, and unemployment is historically low. That’s great news for Main Street. But on Wall Street, it raises fears that inflation will finally pick up, and that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates faster to fight it.

How are global markets reacting?

Overnight, world markets followed the United States’ lead and dropped. The Nikkei in Japan closed down 4.7%, China’s main stock index closed down 3.3%, and Australia’s closed down 3.2%. European markets were lower, but not as much as Asia. Stocks were down about 2% in Britain, Germany and France.

What does this mean for the rally?

From Election Day to the record high on January 26, the Dow climbed more than 8,000 points — a remarkable 45%. Many factors were behind the rapid rise: The ever-improving economy and job market, business optimism, record corporate profits, and the big business tax cut, which Republicans made law. The losses in the market since the beginning of last week wiped out about a quarter of that gain. The Dow began Tuesday up about 6,000 points since the election.

Is this the worst decline ever?

No.

Monday’s decline of 1,175 points on the Dow was, by far, the biggest point decline in history. The Dow had never lost more than 777 points in a single day. But in percentage terms, the declines of Friday and Monday are nowhere near the worst. On Black Monday in 1987, the Dow dropped an incredible 22%. That’s the equivalent of a 5,300-point decline today. And on several days during the financial crisis in 2008, the Dow dropped 6% or 7%. Monday’s decline was 4.6%. That was the worst for the Dow since August 2011.

 

Does all of this mean we’re entering a recession?

Stock market declines don’t cause recessions, and they do a pretty poor job of predicting whether one is coming. So while the market plunge might rattle investors and ding consumer confidence, it is not a sign that the economy is in trouble. Unemployment is at a 17-year low. Average hourly wages went up last month the most in eight years. Consumer and business confidence are near record levels. Economists say it would take a much bigger stock market move than Monday’s plunge to change that.

For more information visit us at Heritage Financial Advisory Group and check out the latest episode of The #AskTheAdvisor Show.

Stock Market Sell-Off: Heartburn, Not A Heart Attack

 

The Equifax Data Breach – What to do Next

The Equifax Data Breach

Here’s what to do if you have been affected

by Kristi Desepoli, Heritage

143 million Americans were affected by the Equifax data breach earlier this week. If you were one of the millions affected by the incident, it’s time to figure out what to do next.  Here are a few steps that you can take if you were affected by the breach.

Enroll yourself in Trusted ID

Equifax is offering everyone a free year of TrustedID, a credit monitoring service. The service includes monitoring of 3 credit Bureaus; Equifax, Experian and TransUnion credit reports; copies of Equifax credit reports; the ability to lock and unlock Equifax credit reports; identity theft insurance; and internet scanning for social security numbers.

Check your credit

The breach actually occurred about three months ago, so there is the possibility that your information is already being used if you were affected. Check your credit report to ensure that there is no unusual activity.

Freeze your credit

Freezing your credit is beneficial due to the fact that anyone who wants to use your credit to open an account would need a special PIN to do so.

Watch out for your taxes

Sometimes personal information is used to file false tax returns to get refunds. Therefore, if you file your taxes after the impersonator, you may get a message from the IRA stating that your taxes have already been filed.

For more information on how to protect yourself from fraud visit http://Equifax – Trusted ID

The 1 Question Investors Should Ask

The 1 Question Investors Should Ask: Is My Financial Advisor a Fiduciary?

By Mike Desepoli AIF®, Vice President of Heritage Financial Advisory Group

Financial advisors will have a new regulation to deal with starting in April, and it’s the biggest change the financial advice industry has seen since the great recession. It’s called the “Fiduciary Rule”, and it will have a significant impact on how financial advice is delivered. It is important that investors understand what this change is, and why its’s important.

Introduced by the previous administration, the fiduciary rule will require financial advisors to put the client’s needs before their own. Yes, you read that right. Until the rule officially goes into effect, your financial advisor may not have your best interest in mind.

What is the current law?

As the law currently stands, there are two standards that advisors are held to, the suitability standard and the fiduciary standard. The suitability standard gives advisers the most wiggle room. It simply requires that recommendations must fit clients’ investing objectives, time horizon and experience. You can satisfy the suitability standard by recommending the least suitable of the options, as long as it falls within the general suitability test of that client. The suitability standard invites conflicts of interest pertaining to compensation, which can vary greatly from one product to another.

It also doesn’t require advisors to disclose conflicts of interest. So what that means is often the products that are being recommended are best for the broker, and have higher costs for the investor. It is estimated that non fiduciary advice costs Americans approximately $17 billion each year.

The other standard of care, the fiduciary standard, tasks advisors with putting their clients’ best interest ahead of their own. For instance, faced with two identical products but with different fees, an adviser under the fiduciary standard would be compelled to recommend the lower cost option to the client, even if it meant fewer dollars in his or her own pocket.

Unfortunately many investors can’t distinguish among advisors who is a fiduciary, and who isn’t. Studies have shown that individual investors don’t know who is a fiduciary or what a fiduciary actually is. So here are a few questions to help you sort through the rubble:

How often do you monitor my investments?

Investors don’t ask this question often, because most investors assume the advisor keeps a close eye on their portfolio. A common reason for using an advisor is insufficient time to self-manage. Hopefully, you are not paying an annual fee for an advisor to put your money into passive index funds and not monitor their performance. If your advisor is not analyzing your portfolio at least quarterly, you may want to discuss the services offered for the annual fee you pay.

 

What is your investment philosophy?

Paying careful attention to the advisor’s answer can offer insight into the business model. Although there is no one-size-fits-all approach, all advisors should have a disciplined and repeatable investment approach. Markets fluctuate, and strategies that may have been in favor last year might perform terribly the next year. An advisor who chases performance and lacks an underlying process often generates poor returns. If they are pitching a new “hot” fund every time you meet, they may not have your best interest in mind.

 

How much am I really paying?

Disclosure requirements have improved since the financial crisis, but “hidden” fees remain for the average investor. Often, when selecting a financial advisor, clients base their decision on the advertised fee. In some cases, there may be no fee referenced at all. Is the advisor working for free? If the fee seems too low, that may also be concerning. The advisor may be receiving ongoing service fees from the investment they are recommending.

This undisclosed compensation is a big conflict of interest. Beware, as these fees can become a significant cost over time, compared to the explicit fees of a fiduciary advisor. A typical fee-based advisor has a tiered structure based on account size that is disclosed to a client up front. Selecting an advisor with a reasonable fee is important, but what you get for that fee is equally relevant. If one advisor is a fiduciary and the other is only held to the suitability standard, the difference in fees may not paint the full picture. Investing in an advisor who has your best interests at heart could pay handsomely over time.

When it comes to choosing a financial advisor, take nothing for granted. Know what you are paying for, and what services you are entitled to. Remember, a misguided broker focused on his or her next commission could cause you financial ruin.

Dow Jones 20k?

Dow Jones 20,000?

December 27, 2016
The Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) got within 13 points of 20,000 last Tuesday. It finished the week about 90 points below the vaunted milestone. As a result, the Dow Jones has gained nearly 10 percent since the end of October, more than double its 4.1 percent rise during the first nine months of the year, spurred in part by Donald J. Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

 

The major U.S. indices have been strong performers since early November. Many people are wondering whether they will continue to do well in 2017. The Economist suggested 2017 could hold a surprise that will negatively affect investors’ expectations:

 

“By definition, a surprise is something the consensus does not expect…investors are expecting above-trend economic growth, higher inflation, and stronger profits…So it is not too difficult to see how the first surprise might play out. Expectations for the effectiveness of Mr. Trump’s fiscal policies are extraordinarily high. But it takes time for such policies to be implemented, and they may be diluted by Congress along the way (especially on public spending). Furthermore, it may well be that demography and sluggish productivity make it very hard to push economic growth up to the 3-4 percent hoped for by the new administration.”

Profitability on the rise?

On the other hand, profitability has improved. As a result, american companies have seen earnings rebound, and many companies are positioned to benefit from the corporate tax cuts promised by the new administration. However, this good news may already be reflected in current share prices. Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio, a measure of valuation based on average inflation-adjusted earnings of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index from the previous 10 years, was at 27.99 on December 23. That’s almost 70 percent above its long-term average of 16.05 and indicates markets may be overvalued.

 

Regardless of potential negative surprises and current market valuation, many analysts expect a positive performance from U.S. stock markets next year. MarketWatch reported, “Most house projections from the big investment banks and brokers converge around the S&P closing the year at 2350 – a scant 5 percent above current levels. Only one strategist…dares to suggest that 2017’s gains could be as much as 20 percent.”

Lets take a look where we’re at:
Data as of 12/23/16 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) 0.2% 6.8% 7.7% 7.4% 12.3% 4.8%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. -1.2 0.8 0.4 -3.3 2.8 -1.1
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.5 NA 2.3 2.9 2.0 4.6
Gold (per ounce) -2.8 6.5 5.9 -1.9 -6.8 6.1
Bloomberg Commodity Index -2.1 9.8 10.5 -12.2 -9.4 -6.3
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index -0.5 7.1 7.3 12.2 11.5 5.1

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

 

america’s most wanted…

Don’t worry. Robots have not yet replaced human workers. In fact, according to The World In 2017 (published by The Economist):

 

“…automation seems to be pushing people from routine jobs, such as factory work, into non-routine ones, particularly those that require cognitive and social skills. Technological progress will cause a shift in the nature of jobs available and the skills they require. It is impossible to know for sure what these new jobs will be – the Luddites who campaigned against the mechanization of weaving in the early 19th century could not have imagined that new fields such as railways, telegraphy, and electrification were coming. But two tools can help us take a stab at identifying the jobs of the near future: hard-nosed statistics and predictive intuition.”

Statistically speaking..

So, what do statistics tell us about the new jobs young people and career changers should be preparing to do? The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics looked at current trends and projected the fastest growing jobs from 2014 to 2024 would be:

 

  1. Wind turbine service technician (up 108 percent)
  2. Occupational therapy assistants (up 43 percent)
  3. Physical therapy assistants (up 41 percent)
  4. Home health aides (up 38 percent)
  5. Commercial drivers (up 37 percent)
  6. Nurse practitioners (up 35 percent)
  7. Physical therapists (up 34 percent)
  8. Statisticians (up 34 percent)
  9. Ambulance drivers (up 33 percent)
  10. Physician assistants (up 30 percent)

 

Predictive intuition suggested quite a different set of careers. The World In 2017 suggested there could be demand for drone technicians and support staff as the use of autonomous vehicles increases. There may also be demand for bot wranglers, such as ‘chatbot’ specialists, who help bots provide customer service through speech and text. Indoor farming may prove to be a growth industry as urban populations increase. Other career possibilities included virtual fashion designers, robo-psychologists, and synthetic tissue engineers. Clearly, there is a world of opportunity.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

 

“So, I’m going to challenge all of you. I want you to true your wheels: be honest about the praise that you need to hear. What do you need to hear? Go home to your wife – go ask her, what does she need? Your husband, what does he need? You should go home and ask those questions, and then help the people around you.”

–Dr. Laura Trice, Therapist and life coach

5 Investing Resolutions for 2017

Investing Resolutions for a Better 2017

When you sit down this week to write out your New Year’s resolutions, make sure you leave room for your 401k.  Many new investors max out their IRA every year, but that’s about all they do. There is no other strategy or alternative to that process. Many investors cheat themselves out of good opportunities by simply not exploring the options available to them.

Young Professionals don’t know..

where to put their money beyond the 401(k). Don’t fret, we won’t leave you hanging. If your resolutions included to become a better investor in 2017, we have some starter tips for you.

1. Don’t worry about making other investments until you are maxing out your 401k.

Making the decision to invest beyond a 401(k) or IRA should only come when you’re comfortably maxing out your retirement accounts. More so than that,  take advantage of all the tax deferred investing that you can.  It’s hard to pass up tax deferred or even tax free. The first step is planning and deciding how much you have to invest, where the [additional money] is coming from, when you might need or want the money, and how much risk you can stomach.

2. Don’t worry about the market on a daily basis

Rookie investors are too easily influenced by daily market movement and trying to time their investing. You are never going to get in at just the right time nor will you be getting out at just the right time. Dollar cost averaging or investing at regular intervals will even out the highs and lows. The logic here is, if you’re in your late 20s or early 30s, the fluctuations of the market on one given day are unlikely to have serious consequences to the retirement money you’ll need to withdraw 30 years from now.

3. make sure you understand what you own, and why you own it.

If you have new money to invest, I suggest a quick review of your existing investments. Are you properly diversified? Are the investment positions meeting your expectations? How are the investments performing relative to their risk and the markets? As a result, the answers to those questions will tell you if the new money should go into the same investments.

4. Having more than one financial advisor doesn’t mean you’re diversified.

We hear this one all the time when we ask people if they have a diversified portfolio. They proudly answer, “Sure I am! I have my money with 3 different advisors!”

The notion that having multiple advisors ensures your money being diversified is ridiculous. Unless those advisors are actively communicating with one another there is no way to know if their strategies are overlapping. As a result, you may be taking more risk than you are comfortable with.

Ask good questions and make sure you understand the level of risk in your strategy. Any competent advisor should be able to quantify the amount of risk in their investment strategy.

5. When pursuing new investments, buy things you ACTUALLY use

The best thing to look for in future investments is to buy things you actually use in everyday life. Go buy Nike, Apple, and Starbucks and leave your money alone. As your savings grow, you can diversity into other household names like Amazon, Google, Netflix and the likes. Stick with them for the long haul and use pullbacks as buying opportunities.

Ask yourself, what is going to be worth a lot in future? What stands to earn a in the next 30 years? What do I use every single day that I can not live without? Buy that.  Consequently, it will work out just fine.

 

25 Ways to Save Hundreds on Your Holiday Shopping

Tips to Save Hundreds on Your Holiday Shopping

 

You’re not alone. A recent study found that 39% of Americans feel pressured to spend more than they can afford during the holiday season.

That’s no wonder, with the average U.S. adult planning to drop $830 on Christmas gifts this year, and 30% of people planning to spend upwards of $1,000, according to a November poll.

To help you make the most of every gift-giving dollar, we’ve asked shopping experts for their smartest strategies. We will explore how to score deals and outsmart retailers at their own tricks. Here are many ways to save during this years shopping season.

1. Track the items you want

One of the easiest ways to save is to avoid impulse buys. Start by making a gift list, then comparison-shop . You can also use price tracking tools to see the highest and lowest prices an item is currently selling for. That way you know whether to whip out the card now or wait till closer to Christmas.

 

2. Set up price alerts

Want something that’s still too pricey for your budget? Use the web to set up email alerts that will notify you when the price drops.

3. Ask for a price match

Once you know the lowest price an item is selling for, ask your local merchant to match it. Most stores will price-match with their direct competitors. You can even compare prices while you’re out shopping by using mobile apps like Price Grabber or Shop Savvy.

4. Shop from a cash-back site

Plenty of websites will give you cash back for shopping at certain retailers as long as you enter the shop’s site through them first. You’ll typically get between 1% and 5% of the purchase back, though sometimes retailers will run specials that bump that figure up to 20%.

You may have access to a similar deal through your credit cards. Discover’s Discover Deals program, for example, includes several retailers who offer between 5% and 15% cash back when you click through Discover’s site to the retailer. As with the sites above, these offers are on top of your usual credit card rewards.

5. Subscribe to store emails

It can be well worth the spam to sign up. Major retailers offer special loyalty coupons and early sale access to frequent customers. Just keep in mind that come-ons for 40% off clothing or housewares could cause you to ramp up spending even as you hunt for bargains. Avoid the temptation by keeping these emails in a separate folder that you check only when you actually need something.

 

Fragile Markets

Fragile Markets

Heritage Financial Weekly – December 12, 2016

 

Dad: “Fra-gee-lay” …it must be Italian!

Mom: I think that says “fragile,” honey.

Dad: Oh, yeah.

 

This holiday season, investors’ enthusiasm for U.S. stocks has rivaled old man Parker’s passion for his major-award leg lamp in ‘A Christmas Story.’ Last week, three major U.S. indices hit all-time highs.

Consumer Sentiment on the Rise good for stocks?

Barron’s reported consumer confidence is helping make this the most wonderful time of the year for U.S. stock markets. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 98 in December, reflecting a surge in consumer confidence. It was the highest reading since January 2015 and is closing in on the highest level since 2004. Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, wrote:

 

“The most important implication of the increase in optimism is that it has raised expectations for the performance of the economy. President-elect Trump must provide early evidence of positive economic growth as well as act to keep positive consumer expectations aligned with performance. Either too slow growth or too high expectations represent barriers to maintaining high levels of consumer confidence.”

 

In his December Investment Outlook, Bill Gross cautioned while many aspects of Trump’s agenda – tax cuts, deregulation, fiscal stimulus – are good for stocks over the near term, investors should keep an eye on the longer term, as protectionist policies could restrict trade and, together with a strong dollar, could lead to more fragile markets.

 

European stocks also moved higher last week as a result of the European Central Bank (ECB) announcing a taper. Quantitative easing will continue through 2017, but ECB purchases will fall each month beginning in April.

A Look At The Numbers

Data as of 12/9/16 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) 3.1% 4.6% 5.4% 7.7% 12.5% 4.8%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. 2.7 2.0 2.1 -2.8 2.7 -1.1
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.5 NA 2.2 2.9 2.1 4.5
Gold (per ounce) -0.8 9.5 7.6 -2.0 -7.4 6.4
Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.3 12.2 11.2 -11.2 -9.2 -6.3
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index 3.8 7.7 10.8 12.1 12.6 4.8

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

 

Divorced? you may want to investigate spousal benefits.

If you weren’t the top wage earner in your marriage, or your job was raising the children, then Social Security’s spousal benefit could prove advantageous. As a result, it provides the lower earning spouse with 50 percent of the higher earning spouse’s benefit at full retirement age, even if you’re no longer married.

 

“Social Security operates with a philosophy that a divorced person may deserve a personal benefit, having been the long-term partner and helpmate of a member of the workforce. The benefit is similar, in fact, to the spousal benefit that is available to a person who is still married.”

 

What Does it all Mean?

To qualify, you do have to answer ‘yes’ to a significant list of requirements:

 

  • Married for at least 10 years
  • You are unmarried now
  • Age 62 or older
  • Your ex-spouse is entitled to Social Security benefits
  • The benefit you qualify to receive based on your work, is less than the benefit your ex-spouse qualifies to receive because of several factors. There are other factors that could affect your application for spousal benefits, including whether your ex-spouse has begun taking benefits. If you would like to learn more, contact your financial professional .
Weekly Focus – Think About It

“My mission in life is not merely to survive, but to thrive; and to do so with some passion, some compassion, some humor, and some style.”

–Maya Angelou, American poet

Retirement Strategies: 4 Things You Can Control

4 Things You Can Control In Retirement

Retirement is supposed to be an exciting new chapter in our lives. We’d like to think we can live well within our means once we stop working. But when we hear that most Americans will never be able to retire, our alarm bells go off – even when the rational side of our brain tells us to stay calm, that things will work out.

It doesn’t help to realize how much of the situation is completely out of our hands: Ordinary individuals can’t change the direction of interest rates or stock prices. All the same, we have more control over how our retirement will play out than many people think, even as it’s about to start. Four decisions you can make yourself can have a huge impact on how comfortable you will be in this next chapter of your life. They have nothing to do with the stock market or the economy.

Timing for Retirement Success

Knowing where you stand financially, then using those data as a starting point, will help you figure out when to trigger each of these four events. Timing is everything.

When to quit working

Work out the math, or consult a fiduciary financial advisor who specializes in retirement income planning, to determine when or if you can stop working. Work doesn’t have to be a grind if you do something you truly enjoy. It doesn’t need to be full time either. The longer you can bring in outside income, the longer you can leave your own savings alone to grow. Deciding to work an extra two or three years can add as much as 30% to your total income once you do stop working.

When to start tapping your nest egg

It’s bit like trying to land an airplane at just the right spot on the runway. Most retirees don’t know precisely when to start withdrawing from their savings and investments. The Wall Street Journal reported in 2005 that many start withdrawing at the age of 62. For most people, that’s too early. Many experts now use age 95 for financial forecasting purposes. It all depends on how much you have saved and what types of outside income sources you have. Even at age 65, most people probably have another 30 [years] to support themselves after they stop working.

When to start taking Social Security to get maximum benefits

Understanding how Social Security works before you’re eligible to start taking is important. Right now, the earliest age you can start taking Social Security is 62. However, full retirement age is usually 66. Every year you can hold off on taking benefits between the ages of 62 and 70 increases your monthly check. The Social Security Administration’s website explains how retirement ages work. If you have complicated financial family relationships – or you’ve lost a spouse or have remarried – it can be worthwhile to get some solid advice. A qualified fee-based fiduciary advisor can run “what if” scenarios using sophisticated software. That can help pinpoint the optimal time to start taking your benefits.

 

 

Investment & Wealth Management

10 Tips to Boost Your Savings

10 Tips to Boost Your Savings

Looking to boost your savings? Here are a few strategies to focus on to get on the right track.

1. Focus on starting today!

Time is your best friend when it comes to growing your savings so don’t wait any longer and get to it!

2. Contribute to your 401(k)

If your employer offers a 401k plan that allows you to contribute pre tax money, ENROLL IN IT! Your future self will thank you for this.

3. Contribute enough to get a “match” from your employer:

If your employer offers to match your 401k contributions, make sure you contribute at least enough to take full advantage of the match….IT’S FREE MONEY!

4. If you don’t have access to a 401k, open an IRA:

Consider establishing an Individual Retirement Account to help build your nest egg. You will be saving for your future and you will also be eligible for a tax deduction. Double WIN!

5. Take advantage of catch up contributions if you are age 50 or older.

6. Automate your savings and pay yourself first:

Make your retirement contribution automatic each month and you’ll have the opportunity to potentially grow you nest egg without having to think about it.

7. SPEND LESS:

Examine your budget and evaluate what is a want, versus what is a needs. Rein it in.

8. Set GOALS

9. Create a rainy day fund

10. Consider delaying social security as you get closer to retirement:

For each year you delay taking social security, your benefit will increase up to a certain point, consult your advisor or accountant for help.